ZODIAC CIPHERS
Richard Grinell, Coventry, England
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MARAUDER OR COMMUTER?

9/25/2019

 
A serial killer exhibiting the traits of a marauder will operate using a buffer zone from their residence but radiate from this base when committing their murders, whereas a commuter will operate outside their normal activity spaces, thereby shifting the focus of the investigation away from the offenders anchor point. A serial killer living in Vallejo and operating as a commuter, would in the examples below, travel to San Francisco or Pleasanton to commit their murders and so shift the focus of the investigation away from their home base or residence. Canter and Larkin (1993) proposed the Circle Theory of Environmental Range that suggested a circle drawn around the two furthest offences from each other, would likely reveal the offender's home base, at or near the circle center (as shown by the Zodiac map on the right of the illustration below). This is just a rough example, as the circle could be shifted slightly to the left. Regardless, the center point falls in the approximate area of Vallejo or American Canyon. The problem arises when we draw a circle around a commuter's known offences, in that it would reveal a home location for the killer completely unrelated to his true residence. Therefore, it is critical that we identify whether the Zodiac Killer was a marauder or commuter.
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There have been several studies done that suggest the vast majority of serial killers are marauders, who venture out from their anchor point, with the distance chosen from their residence based upon a buffer zone, the least effort principle, distance decay and a mental map of the area. A serial killer will often commit his earlier crimes closer to home because of uncertainty and inexperience, but venture further afield as their confidence grows. From the perspective of a killer working Monday to Friday, one might expect their Friday crimes to be situated closer to their home location, governed by the least effort principle and time constraints. Whereas their Saturday crimes, free from time constraints and tiredness, would unburden their unwillingness to travel further afield. If the Zodiac Killer lived in Vallejo, then the Canter and Larkin model looks like a good fit. Once the Zodiac Killer had committed his first two attacks close to his residence, the natural inclination on a Saturday would be to shift the emphasis away from the Vallejo and Benicia areas. The third attack at Lake Berryessa swung the focus approximately 42 miles north, while the Presidio Heights murder veered the investigation 35 miles south, into a fourth jurisdiction. It could be argued that the Zodiac Killer was deliberately attempting to redirect investigators away from where he lived. 

Canter and Young noted from a geographical standpoint that a commuter's crimes will generally be grouped closer together, whereas a marauder's crimes will be more spread. If the Zodiac Killer was a commuter living in Vallejo, one could expect him to commit multiple attacks at a secondary location such as San Francisco, in an attempt to focus the investigation far from home. Grouping the attacks within San Francisco would achieve this objective, but spreading the attacks would effectively nullify this tactic. A killer living in Vallejo may attempt to spread his attacks in all directions with each subsequent attack, designed in such a fashion to confuse investigators trying to pinpoint the murderer's anchor point, but may in essence have the reverse effect to the one desired. However, there is one important dichotomy to unpick when we consider the Zodiac Killer compared to most serial murderers - and that is the copious communications he mailed primarily from San Francisco.        
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The Zodiac Killer's attacks spread out as time went by, but apart from his Vallejo Times-Herald communication on July 31st 1969, his focus for letter writing centered squarely on San Francisco. The least effort principle argues that when an offender is presented with two or more options to commit a crime, with equal availability and outcome, they will usually opt for the one that takes the least effort to achieve the same objective. The Zodiac Killer only committed four attacks, but likely mailed in excess of 20 letters. Therefore, is he more likely to go out of his way to deceive investigators by shifting his murders around the map in two or three instances, or mail his letters from an array of different locations to achieve a similar objective? He could have mailed his letters from anywhere, but primarily focused on San Francisco. When you are applying the least effort principle to his letter writing, it is easy to understand why he would choose the path of least resistance. If he had lived in Vallejo and mailed them at various locations on his route to work in San Francisco, then investigators (in his mind) may have been able to piece together his route taken and thereby identify an approximate home location. But by mailing virtually everything in San Francisco it could be interpreted by investigators that he lived in San Francisco - which is something the Zodiac Killer probably realized early on when his communications to the Vallejo Times-Herald went no further.  

His attacks took on the appearance of a marauder, while his letter writing took on the appearance of a commuter - which is exactly what he would have been, had he worked in San Francisco and lived in Vallejo. When your letter writing count outweighs your murder sites five to one, it is far easier to use this in order to focus investigators into a belief that you live in San Francisco, when it requires no more effort than traveling to work each day. The final confirmed murder at Presidio Heights could have been a deliberate choice by a killer determined to divert the investigation down a path far from home, but by reverse psychology, may have achieved the complete opposite to the one intended. 

The Zodiac Killer showed his ability to be unconstrained by a method of operation or modus operandi, with the 'couple killings' more a result of circumstance than choice. Had a third person been present in either vehicle at Lake Herman Road and Blue Rock Springs Park, does anybody believe that the Zodiac Killer would have turned around and gone home? The same could be said for a single person. This was evident when the Zodiac Killer mailed his trinity of letters on July 31st 1969, stating "I will cruse around and pick of all stray people or coupples that are alone, then move on to kill some more untill I have killed over a dozen people". His other two letters made no mention of couples. The idea that this was a sexually frustrated hater of courting couples is not warranted by the limited number of attacks in the sample size, and the idea that he would have just skulked off home, disappointed that he didn't see any couple's making out, is a hard argument to sell. However, the notion of earlier attacks carrying less risk and distance in respect to a home residence, has statistically been proven in previous studies of serial killers, whether or not it is true in this instance.    

Rubislaw 32 link
9/26/2019 07:56:37 pm

Clearly no ''takers'' Richard,on what is an excellent article....which does important questions.

But probably no takers,because most of us aren't sure [?].

I would be inclined to go ''marauder'',but with personal considerations,over a suspect.But I do try to ''work the case'',for the most part.

Interesting,your elected ''buffer zones'' [?]....but I assume you are just laying down examples [?].

It has,for example,become quite persuading,that the Zodiac caused a bit of ''mischief'',down ''San Jose Way'',and on two occasions,anyway.

One senses that ''unpredictability'' was something that the Zodiac aimed for,once he had decided to ''become'' the persona,for which he declared himself,as.....for LHR and BRS,it is still difficult to assess,where his head,was exactly at.....so yes,I think that the ''marauder'' took over...but more as a tactic,than actual instincts.

Rubislaw 32 link
9/26/2019 08:10:18 pm

It had occurred to me that,in thinking of ''empires'',and the Romans,in particular,it was their want to occupy everything they seized...no matter how small.A sort of phiosophical code,if you will.

From early on,it seems that the Zodiac had a ''Bay Area'' awareness,as if he had declared his ''patch'' for the purposes of terrorizing.

So,maybe there was a part of him,at his height of terror anyway,where he felt an obligation to himself to become the ''marauder'' in order to,at least give the impression that he was ''everywhere'',and could pop up,at any moment.

Rubislaw 32 link
9/27/2019 03:57:04 am

A poignant day,indeed,with the 50th anniversary of the attack at Lake Berryessa,and the fatal wounding of Cecilia Shepard.

All for the sake of the Zodiac,palming himself off,as a ''poor man's'' version of Jack The Ripper.

Disgraceful,as well as callous.

A highlight though,of a sort,since last night I located the postcard employed for the message sent to Richard Nixon,and addressed ''Dear King'',and signed,''A concerned citizen for freedom !''.

It was sent from Oregon,with the writing,I believe,illustrating elements of both D B Cooper and The Zodiac.In figurative ''fact'',answers the question over a ''dodgy'' capital ''T'',in the 2001 New Years Card.

Six months of patience,has paid off....with ten dollars,well spent.

Dedicated to Ms.Shepard,if in any way,it alerts the smallest notice,of the FBI,when it is posted.

Richard
9/27/2019 02:07:28 pm

I am sure you are correct Rubislaw in that whatever credence can be given to Zodiac deliberately spreading his crimes to confuse investigators, his choice of Lake Berryessa certainly showed the wider Bay Area that nobody was safe, man, woman or child in school bus. The idea he could terrorize the wider community certainly a driving force for the Zodiac Killer, while having the confusing effect of pinning down his home location. Possibly the act of killing Paul Stine and exiting the crime scene on foot deliberately designed to give the impression he lived nearby. Leaving your vehicle by the park, travelling to Union Square, to then catch a taxicab back to your own vehicle, may have had such a purpose of deceit. However, I'm sure that a fair share of people believe he simply lived close by. After all, only a stupid killer would commit murder on his own doorstep right. It could be the perfect double bluff, along with the mailing of the letters.

Richard
9/27/2019 02:08:52 pm

Should say above "his choice of Lake Berryessa and San Francisco".

Rubislaw 32 link
9/28/2019 04:02:54 am

Refer : HEARNAP File 32 ,pages 90 - 92

[...that's the Zodiac....as sure as ''eggs is eggs''....]

Richard
9/28/2019 04:30:02 am

Great find Rubislaw , I don't know how I missed it. I will run it over the next day or so in an article Rubislaw giving credit of course, It was postmarked only 15 days after the May 8th "concerned citizen" card. I may obviously lean towards dispelling the "citizen card" as Zodiac, but present it with both options to be fair. Can you refrain from discussing it further until I set up the article and we can discuss it in depth there. Once again, marvellous find.

Richard
9/28/2019 04:36:26 am

I obviously realize you've mentioned it before, but it's my mistake - I never clocked the date. What did you think the postcard depicted again?

Richard
9/28/2019 04:38:15 am

Sorry, don't answer that, save it till the article. I will be out for the entirety of today, so let's continue this when I set up the article.

Rubislaw 32 link
9/27/2019 03:17:18 pm

Very interested in what you have to say,Richard....and of course,in just two weeks,the anniversary of Presidio Heights,will be particularly in our thoughts.

Yes...a number of motives,for putting together the Presidio Heights ''project'' [?].

Well,the luring of a taxi driver,to the periphery of a busy city,was probably straight out of what was going on,on a regular basis,in Londonderry and Belfast,at the time.

And indeed,grounds for the Zodiac desiring to falsely hint to the authorities,that he was an actual resident,of the city [?].From the first time,I read a fairly full account of what is known to have taken place,I was persuaded that the far side of the Golden Gate Bridge,was his initial ''getaway'' goal....and have not been convinced otherwise,since.

The main reason is that I believe that,in being his fourth known attack,there was a bit of consideration placed on putting fear into the wealthier members of society.Covering,if you will,the whole spectum of society.''That'' even those with supposed greater protection,weren't necessarily safe.

In addition,perhaps,of the knowledge that public servants,including the police....can become a bit ''jittery'' when the wealthy appear to be targeted....since it is they that contribute most,in local taxation....and it is they that have the connections,to the real power.

Although a little bit of a surprise,that we now find Carmel Beach,to have been depicted,in the Celebrity Cipher,twenty years on....perhaps a hint that,not only was the Zodiac reminding everyone,that he might still be residing ''close at hand''....but also,that he ''might'' be returning to thoughts about terrorizing the wealthier folk [?].

Richard
9/27/2019 03:41:21 pm

Good points Rubislaw - the wealthier folk, including a celebrity. Once you have threatened to kill and killed boys, girls, men, women, children, police and the wealthy, I don't suppose there's a lot left.. Murdering somebody famous, similar to the Manson Family and Sharon Tate, would have achieved Zodiac the greatest worldwide publicity. If the celebrity cipher could unarguably be solved to everybody's satisfaction and it contained a threat on Clint Eastwood or somebody of similar stardom, I imagine such a threat would have made Zodiac's day.

Rubislaw 32 link
9/27/2019 04:33:24 pm

Funny how it has taken ''us'',nearly thirty years,to find out about the Carmel Beach depiction [?].

I bet Clint Eastwood and a few others,were informed immediately.

As the saying goes : '' One rule for the rich.....''

If it,in anyway embarrasses the authorities.....then it's a ''bonus''.

Shame on them....for it has not,I presume,made one extra jot of difference to their investigations.

Perhaps ''they'' could show their ''contrition'',by handing over the contents of the DMV letter,and Monicello Card [?].

Rubislaw 32 link
9/28/2019 02:50:07 am

Just on further thoughts,Richard....and as you have really pinpointed...

The Celebrity Cipher....we ''know'' by 2006,that the FBI had yet to crack the cipher....since why else would they have released it,into the public domain,by leaking it via Lafferty [?].

So...the FBI had a correspondence called the ''Celebrity'' Cipher,with a picture of Carmel Beach.It must have persuaded the FBI,that the target could be Clint Eastwood,himself....none other,than ''Dirty Harry''.

The ''motive'' for a correspondence,specifically....was ''probably'' news of the divorce of the Hardens...seeing as the Zodiac had the capacity to be ''small minded''.With the discovery of Joan Webster's body,six months prior....possibly a ''second betting'' option.

Rubislaw 32 link
9/28/2019 03:25:36 am

And,in a way....the ''inferred'' targetting of Clint Eastwood,in September 1990,adds persuasion that the Zodiac went on,from there,to become ''Scorpion'',whom we are aware,created 5 ciphers,into the 1990's.

In a ''poetic'' sense,Scorpion is close to ''Scorpio'',the fictional adversary of ''Dirty Harry''.

But also,from a ''reality'' perspective,it seems that the Zodiac had not offered a cipher,since Z148....into mid-1971.

But,with considerations of Z263,in 1988,also....the appetite for cipher making,was beginning to return.

Imagine...Z263,in 1988 is solved quite easily,by the Cryptanalysis Unit.Then,the Celebrity Cipher comes along....and the FBI ''hit a brick wall''.

Not so different,from Z408 appearing relatively easy....then,Z340....they ''hit a brick wall'' [?].

Richard
9/28/2019 04:20:27 am

Well, if we believe that the card choice has any relevance to the cipher, then we could infer a celebrity, all be it, only previously connected to Carmel. Luis Campos featured celebrities in his cipher, so what is preventing the Zodiac or author of this postcard running with the theme. What is the point in choosing the Celebrity Style Cipher of Luis Campos if not to feature a celebrity. A communication such as this, combined with a celebrity could be Belliesque, or something far more sinister. But why the Vallejo Times-Herald, rather than the maximum exposure of the Chronicle.

Rubislaw 32 link
9/28/2019 06:24:46 am

Just on your final question,Richard....and of course,only a theory I venture is...

The Celebrity Cipher is addressed to the Vallejo Times Herald...and the Xmas Eueka Card [..three months later..],is addressed to the San Francisco Chronicle.

It's ''obvious'' that the desired recipient of the Eureka Card,is ''Secret Pal'',Paul Avery.But,not so obvious,to whom the desired recipient of the Celebrity Cipher,is [?].

Well,I do have ''SP'' appearing twice,in a solution....but,nevertheless,any cipher solution,apart...

Paul Avery was working for the SF Examiner,at that late 1990 time.And therefore,the ''odd one out'' of the three major Bay Area newspapers.

Perhaps,the Zodiac thought that there was a better chance of Paul Avery,at least,hearing about either or both 1990 correspondences....since security screening on incoming potential Zodiac mail....might be ''tighter'' at the newspaper,for which Avery was working,at any given time [?].

So...the ''theory'' perhaps,that the Zodiac ''avoided'' the SF Examiner.

I just think that the Zodiac wanted Avery to know about the two correspondences,more than anyone else.

Poignantly,perhaps,it is likely that Avery never got to hear about either correspondences....since they were ''swallowed up'' by an agreed security arrangement,before any regular staff heard anything,beyond general information.

Rubislaw 32 link
9/28/2019 06:53:40 am

....and ''naturally'',it's a load of codswallop that the SF Chronicle,just happened to come across the Eueka Card,in 2007.

It becomes more and more apparent that,the FBI have kept the tightest of reigns on any and all Zodiac related correspondence....ever since the debacle over the Bates correspondences,ending up at the Post Office's fraud department,and requiring ''retreival'' by the FBI.

Whatever were the Riverside Police thinking [?].

Yet another of the great mysteries surrounding the case,for which there has yet to be a satisfactory explanation.

Rubislaw 32 link
9/28/2019 07:29:33 am

Yes indeed,Richard....it sounds a great idea,for your suggestion of an article,surrounding the ''mysterious'' postcard,threatening Nixon's daughter,Tricia.

The reason I had to purchase it was,because it only showed the picture side.The good news is,that the postcard is in pristine condition,and unused.A ''rarity'' to find,since the photographic quality,is not of the standard of the Carmel Beach photograph...suggesting that the Idaho based printers,were quite a small outfit,with limited output.

I should receive the postcard,in the post,in 7 - 10 days.So that gives you ample time,to consider your article [?].I would only recommend that you consider D.B.Cooper's ''Vancouver'' letter/envelope,and the 2001 New Years Card/envelope for comparisons.

But,naturally,the article is ''your baby'' entirely.If you were to e-mail me,with a desired address...then I can send you the postcard...and for you to keep,as a souvenir,also

Rubislaw 32 link
9/28/2019 07:49:42 am

...sorry..yes,it's the McKenzie River and Three Sisters Mountains.

Three sisters [?]

1] Three little maids

2] Three female victims : Jensen,Ferrin and Shepard

3] Three ''Werner'' victims : Snoozy,Furlong and Bilek

D B Cooper signed one of his letters,'' A Rich Man ''....perhaps similar ''deadpan'' wit,to Nixon's ''Dear King'' [?].

Rubislaw 32 link
9/28/2019 04:05:32 pm

....and,we could possibly add Richard Nixon,to a prospective list of Joseph Bates,Randolph Hearst and George Webster....who have been ''goaded'' by the Zodiac,through mention of their daughters [?].

Could be ''common practice'',by the ''sadistc'' extortionist [?].

Rubislaw 32 link
9/28/2019 05:05:02 pm

.....and conceivable that Stanley Kubrick could be added,to the list of ''Fathers of daughters'' [?].

Rubislaw 32 link
9/29/2019 04:28:01 am

As I have just realized,with postcard's photograph,there seems to be a ''bit of a bonus'',with regard to a link to the Halloween Card.

Well...one can read all sorts of things,if one looks long enough....but I think that the ''unveiling'' will be well worth the wait.

SpartyWilly
9/29/2019 11:07:59 pm

unbelievable.


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    The Zodiac Killer may have given us the answer almost word-for-word when he wrote PS. The Mt. Diablo Code concerns Radians & # inches along the radians. The code solution identified was Estimate: Four Radians and Five Inches To read more, click the image.
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