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LAKE BERRYESSA- A KILLER'S TIMELINE

10/3/2017

9 Comments

 
The following will re-examine the timeline of the Lake Berryessa attack on September 27th 1969, placing the Zodiac Killer's vehicle approximately 1.1 to 1.2 miles from the crime scene during the brutal stabbing of Bryan Hartnell and Cecelia Shepard. 
Two other sets of eyewitnesses, Dr Rayfield and his son, and the three young women, all may have seen the killer that day, possibly from the near identical location around Smittle Creek. This location being 0.8 miles from the 1956 White Volkswagen Karmann Ghia of Bryan Hartnell. To get an overview of the crime scene we must use details given in the police report - and in addition to this - use the Zodiac Killer's phone call to Dave Slaight to pinpoint the likely location of his vehicle that day. These are some of the crucial measurements:

The Zodiac Killer stated in the phone call to police, "I want to report a murder, no, a double murder. They are two miles north of Park Headquarters. They were in a white Volkswagen Karmann Ghia. I'm the one that did it".  The victims were in fact 0.7 miles north of Park Headquarters. The three young women who potentially saw Zodiac, "parked their vehicle at a location two miles north of the A & W Root Beer stand on Knoxville Road." The Sugar Loaf Park A & W was situated at 5100 Knoxville Road. The second set of eyewitnesses saw the Zodiac later that day: "Dr Rayfield and his son stated that they did not notice a vehicle in the area of their vehicle and only this subject at a distance of about 100 yards. This location was approximately 8/10ths of a mile from the scene of the victim's vehicle. There are four coves of water between the scene of the crime and the area where the doctor saw the subject". Using these statements we can now create the relative positions of everybody that day, using the measurement tools on Google Maps.   
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The first thing to be noticed using these approximate measurements, is that the position of Dr Rayfield & his son would be at the very same location as the three young women - or at the very least - in the same vicinity (Smittle Creek). The Zodiac Killer's vehicle would have been relocated 0.3 to 0.4 miles north of the three young women, after he had 'stalked' them from the hillside. In fact, he could have been as little as 600 meters north at the Smittle Creek Day Use Area. The police report stated that "at 3:30 pm she and her two girlfriends parked their vehicle at a location two miles north of the A & W Root Beer stand on Knoxville Road". They then walked to the beach. "After approximately one-half hour had passed, they observed what appeared to be the same subject standing with 40 or 50 feet of them, apparently observing them. The subject hung around the area for approximately 45 minutes and then the girls observed him walk up the hill". Allowing 10 minutes for the girls to get their belongings from their vehicle and walk to the beach, the total time passed would have the man walking up the hill at around 4:55 pm.

One page later in the police report, it stated "The three girls left the area about 4:30 pm and the subjects vehicle was gone".  This discrepancy is not crucial to the remaining timeline, so we will estimate the time the man left at 4:55 pm, with the girls shortly after. If the Zodiac Killer was preparing an attack on the three girls, then he certainly had second thoughts and departed the scene, not unlike his attack at Blue Rock Springs on July 4th 1969 and his switch of intersections at Presidio Heights on October 11th 1969. In both of these examples he was not to be denied, and continued on with his murderous intentions. There may be good reason to believe he had the very same intentions here. The reason being:   
PictureCecelia Shepard
"Dr Rayfield stated that about 6:30 pm the previous evening, he and his son had parked their car north of Park Headquarters in the general area of the crime scene. They stated they went down towards the beach area when David noticed a white male adult subject walking in the area, described as about 5'10", heavy build, wearing dark trousers, a dark shirt with red in it, long sleeves".
By the time they reached the beach and then noticed the man, it was likely closer to 6:45-6:50 pm. There is a very good chance that the individual they saw that evening was the Zodiac Killer - and the dark shirt he was wearing "with red in it" was likely the blood of Bryan Hartnell and Cecelia Shepard. The Zodiac Killer was returning to his vehicle from the crime scene 0.8 miles south. The killer was effectively traveling from south to north, and likely had the pass the location of Dr Rayfield and his son to reach his vehicle. 

We have established that this is virtually the same location the three girls were present earlier that afternoon. Therefore, when the three sunbathing girls saw the man leave up the hill at approximately 4:55 pm, it could be argued he drove northwards, just beyond this location, which is why he had to pass this area after the brutal double stabbing of the young couple. The journey time on foot from the Volkswagen Karmann Ghia (6:30 pm) to the location of Dr Rayfield and son, is approximately 20 minutes along the hillside, This ties in with the estimated time of the David Rayfield sighting, given earlier as 6:50 pm. But why did the Zodiac Killer leave the scene of the three girls and park a short distance north of their location? This cannot be fully established - but he may have had second thoughts about murdering the three girls with his vehicle in such close proximity to the scene. There is every chance he left with the full intention of returning 15 minutes later with a 'buffer zone' in place. However, the girls had left shortly after him, and his murderous plot was foiled. I have made a calculated guess on the position of the Zodiac Killer's vehicle that afternoon and evening, based on his possible movements after leaving the Volkswagen Karmann Ghia, the fact an off-road parking area is present at that position on Google Maps (and maybe 1969), and the phone call he made from 1231 Main Street - which we shall return to later.    

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The man would have walked back to the girls location at around 5:10 pm (4:55 pm + 15 minutes). He then had to walk back down the hill to approach the girls for a second time. Unfortunately for him, they had left the area and returned home, leaving the Zodiac Killer searching the area in vain, possibly for alternative victims. The search, and travel time up and down the hill, we shall guesstimate at 30 minutes, taking the time to 5:40 pm. The Zodiac Killer then travels 0.8 miles south along the hillside, searching for potential targets along the way. He happens upon the Volkswagen Karmann Ghia at 6:00 pm (0.8 miles walking time of 20 minutes). This allows the killer 30 minutes to approach Bryan Hartnell and Cecelia Shepard, enter into brief dialogue, secure them, and begin his deadly attack, before returning up the hill to 'sign' the car door with 6:30 pm.

His journey time back to his vehicle, past Dr Rayfield and his son, would have taken roughly 25-30 minutes, which placed him entering his vehicle at approximately 6:55 to 7:00 pm for his 28 mile return journey towards the Napa payphone. Traveling at near 40 mph, he would have arrived at the 1231 Main Street, Napa payphone circa 7:35-7:40 pm and the exact time the call was logged by police dispatcher Dave Slaight. The phone call contained the ominous message "I want to report a murder, no, a double murder. They are two miles north of Park Headquarters. They were in a white Volkswagen Karmann Ghia. I'm the one that did it". However, Park Headquarters was only 0.7 miles from the crime scene, not 2 miles as he had claimed. So how could the killer make such a pronounced error, particularly if he was familiar with the area.

If the Zodiac Killer had parked at the Smittle Creek Day Use Area, left it there, and trawled the hillsides of Lake Berryessa traveling south, while looking for potential victims, then on his return from the attack on Bryan Hartnell and Cecelia Shepard he would have to pass by Dr Rayfield & Son at Smittle Creek Trailhead to reach his vehicle. That is why they spotted a suspicious man traveling across the upper reaches of the hillside sometime after 6:30 pm, wearing a shirt with red in it. The Zodiac Killer traveled a further 600 meters to the Smittle Creek Day Use Area, got in his vehicle and drove 1.83 miles south along Knoxville Road past the Park Headquarters. When he reached the payphone at Napa he mistakenly described this distance of 1.83 miles as "two miles north of Park Headquarters", accidentally giving away the location of where he parked his vehicle on September 27th 1969. Or maybe he was just terrible at distances - but great at cryptograms, codes, maps and radians. We all have to be bad at something.

Deputy Ray Land and Sergeant David Collins were dispatched directly to the crime scene from St Helena and Napa respectively.  Sgt David Collins spoke on the documentary 'This is the Zodiac Speaking' "It took us a half hour from Napa and/or St Helena to arrive at the location. And we later found out of course that crime had occurred at least half an hour before we were notified." They were notified at 7:10 pm, so arrived en scene at approximately 7:40 pm. 
The Zodiac Killer would have exited the Berryessa-Knoxville Road literally minutes before they entered it.

​LAKE BERRYESSA- A KILLER'S TIMELINE [PART TWO]

9 Comments
Drew
10/3/2017 03:35:16 pm

Nice analysis Richard!

Reply
Carl Karas
10/4/2017 07:00:04 am

Your use of the map is extremely effective in describing what happened. And rhe series of events as you lay it out is quite convincing, Richard. Raises the thought that if Z'd originally targeted the 3 girls and not a couple as in his two previous attacks then he's much more opportunistic than often characterized

Reply
Richard
10/5/2017 04:03:49 am

If Zodiac had parked in his own car by Bryan Hartnell's vehicle, then you run the risk of that vehicle being associated with the crime by potential eyewitnesses. This wasn't late at night in isolated pull of areas, this was around 6.00-6.30 pm in broad daylight. Had he parked next to Hartnell's car and left the scene at 6.30 pm, he should have arrived at the 1231 Main St payphone at 7.10-7.15 pm, a considerable difference to the 7.40 pm log. Assuming he wasn't held up in a traffic jam, then he either drove off route to a secondary location, possibly to dispose of the knife and costume, accounting for the 'lost 25-30 minutes, or this time was used returning back to his vehicle across the hillside and subsequently spotted by Dr Rayfield & son. With little substantive evidence in the Zodiac case, eyewitness statements (although not always reliable) and timelines are extremely important. Investigators always check the whereabouts, movements and the timelines of suspects to see if they can be corroborated or validated. The time of the attack on the couple could easily have been determined from Hartnell, Ronald Fong and the reports from several people. A journey time from this location to the payphone is 40 odd minutes, indicating Zodiac departed around 7.00 pm or marginally earlier, not 6.30 pm or even 6.40 pm. The time discrepancy is certainly notable, and if not the above two examples, then another reason exists. Unless of course he 'signed' the Volkswagen Karmann Ghia at 7.00 pm, and the man the Rayfield's saw was not Zodiac.

Reply
Greg H.
10/6/2017 10:03:19 pm

Richard, What do you make of the supposed worn-out 'mismatched tires' parked alongside Hartnell's car that certain investigators have claimed were Zodiac's and indicative that he was driving some old jalopy that he could barely afford to maintain?..This bit of information has seemingly been accepted as one of factual importance to our understanding of the case but perhaps, as you've outlined here, it could be completely erroneous...
There are indeed similarities with some of the events at Berryessa and Blue Rock Springs--first, the initial drive-by at BRS is similar to what may have been taken place at Berryessa as Zodiac watched the 3 young women but did not act. I have to disagree, however, with the idea that Zodiac watched these girls for 45 minutes before deciding to move his vehicle and then return to attack them. I think attacking 3 people would have been one too many, especially if his plan was to use a knife. Not to mention, if there were survivors, they'd already had plenty of time to identify him after seeing him unmasked for nigh an hour. With Bryan and Cecelia, by contrast, he didn't linger and stare at them for much time at all. He spotted them and instantly proceeded in doing what he did.
Also, like BRS, there is arguably time unaccounted for prior to his making the call to police. I've always been of the mind that it's entirely impossible he used whatever spare minutes we have just sitting in his car, maybe going over what he was going to say, preparing a note (remember Slover said it sounded like he was reading a script) and generally just reflecting on and trying to steel himself after committing what he thought were double-homicides in each instance. No one knows what happened, of course, but after carrying out acts of this order it may be understandable if the culprit does not seamlessly proceed from point a to b in the same way one would if running mundane errands. This was obviously very meaningful to him, so he might have taken his time and relished in whatever emotions were coarsing through his depraved mind and soul...

Reply
Richard
10/7/2017 02:36:18 am

The tire impressions are important and certainly have to be considered in relation to Zodiac, but without a date stamp on them, in theory they could have been made anytime. Lake Berryessa reminds me of Lake Herman Road in that we have two important sightings around the time of the attack. At Lake Herman Road we had the unoccupied Chevrolet in the turnout and the incident with William Crow. The owners of the Chevrolet and occupants of the 'chasing' vehicle never presented themselves as eyewitnesses to police. Neither did the man spotted by the three girls or the man spotted by David Rayfield. Are these four incidents just benign observations, or are they something more significant.
If the three girls saw Zodiac, he certainly opted to stop or delay committing the act. We know Zodiac had a gun, so controlling three sunbathing girls would have taken little effort. He may not have returned a second time to attack the girls, but noticing their vehicle had gone, simply trawled the hillside for alternative victims. Zodiac may certainly have just sat in vehicle for approximately 30 minutes before the phone call, although I did find the journey time from Bryan Hartnell's vehicle to the area just past the Rayfields, where they spotted a man with red in his shirt, nicely tied into this lost 30 minutes of time. The idea of Zodiac parking by the Karmann Ghia seemed to suggest that maybe he saw the couple arrive. He correctly signed their vehicle after the attack, possibly because he simply put two and two together, but this may be the reason he used the tactic of asking for Hartnell's vehicle to escape to Mexico. Bryan tosses him the keys to his vehicle and if the keys have no identifying Volkswagen fob or markings, he can simply try the keys in the vehicle he spotted minutes earlier, to check if it was associated with the couple. My guess is he just happened upon their vehicle, as opposed to seeing them arrive. What is curious though Gregory, is that if you or I were to commit a murder in broad daylight, say at a house, you certainly don't park your vehicle outside unless you want to get caught. Anybody could have overlooked or seen the stabbing that day, so being seen trundling up the hill and entering your vehicle (assuming it wasn't stolen) parked alongside the crime scene, is high risk. But equally, travelling back 30 minutes to your vehicle may apply separation, but means anybody reporting the stabbing, would leave you awfully exposed to arriving park rangers or police while traversing the hillside. After the crime, what Zodiac did, and what I would do may be two separate things, but with a 12 inch blooded knife in my possession, along with a bloodied executioners mask, likely blood on my trousers, hands or gloves, and in my vehicle, I certainly would not be sitting in my car contemplating for 30 minutes. I would either separate myself from the offending items or make the desired phone call and get home as soon as possible. That is why the shirt tearing at Presidio Heights may have an alternative answer that I would like to explore again. I know Ray equally has reservations about this crime. You may be correct Gregory, the mind of a killer isn't as black and white in the options he chooses as the rational mind tries paint.

Reply
drew
10/22/2019 02:06:19 pm

Really informative analysis on the Berryessa timeline, Richard. Recently, I was looking at a picture of Bryan's car door and realized there could be a subtle clue regarding Zodiac's identity. It also could account for Z possibly giving an inaccurate time for the attack.


Richard Gaikowski's Army ID number, 55528350, adds up to 33.

Richard's age in September, 1969 -- 33 years old.

Sept. 27/ 69 / 6:30 -- 2 plus 7 plus 6 plus 9 plus 6 plus 3 = 33

Reply
Richard
10/22/2019 03:23:11 pm

Yes, I believe you posted this on Tom's forum Drew. Great news for Gaikowski fans. If you don't believe Gaikowski was Zodiac however, I don't know where that leaves you. We all see these number patterns, but it's in the eye of the beholder as to whether we deem them meaningful or not. My next article is a case of patterns, to which I'm eternally sceptical.

Reply
Richard
10/22/2019 03:25:11 pm

Are you leaning towards Gaikowski as a suspect Drew?

drew
10/23/2019 08:23:59 am

Yes, Richard. He is currently my main suspect. Gaikowski ticks off the most boxes for me, and I still have yet to hear an adequate explanation for his plagiarized article on Ireland.

Reply



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