GEOGRAPHIC PROFILING THE FUTURE

6/30/2019

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On December 16th 1969, the Zodiac Killer mailed a letter to the San Francisco Examiner from Fairfield, threatening "government life". Within the communication he compiled a list of potential "cop" targets (38 in total), claiming he would kill more people if his letter was not printed in the newspaper. In previous articles I have used geographic profiling to pinpoint where the Zodiac Killer most probably lived, based upon the crimes and telephone calls that he made. I wondered if the same could be achieved regarding something he hadn't done, but wanted to do. One would like to believe that the Zodiac Killer, in respect to his home residence, would choose murder sites based upon their accessibility to him. In other words, he would threaten to kill less, the further he traveled away from his home residence.

The Fairfield letter has a threatened kill count of 9 in Sacramento, 8 in Oakland, 8 in Napa, 6 in Vallejo, 3 in Fairfield, 3 in San Francisco and 1 in San Jose. This would suggest that San Jose would be his furthest commute to kill, with his residence at a reasonable traveling distance to Sacramento, Oakland, Napa and to a slightly lesser extent Vallejo. The letter itself was postmarked Fairfield, which is telling, because Sacramento to the northeast of Fairfield is 37 miles, while Oakland to the south is 34 miles. Fairfield to Napa is 14 miles, and to Vallejo is 15 miles. Therefore, Fairfield is fairly equidistant to the areas targeted in the letter the most (Sacramento, Oakland, Napa and Vallejo). The two furthest from Fairfield are targeted the least in terms of a proposed kill count (central San Francisco and San Jose, 39 and 63 miles respectively). Does this tell us anything about the Zodiac Killer's residence based upon the distance decay model of geographic profiling. Distance decay is a geographical term which describes the effect of distance on cultural or spatial interactions. The distance decay effect states that the interaction between two locales declines as the distance between them increases. Once the distance is outside of the two locales' activity space, their interactions begin to decrease. The Zodiac Killer would therefore attack less frequently the further he moved away from his residence and comfort zone. However, this is not what interested me regarding the Fairfield letter.

If we take a look at Sacramento, Fairfield, Vallejo, Oakland and San Francisco - one thing stands out regarding these locales. These areas account for 29 of the 38 potential victims targeted in the Fairfield letter - and all are passed by Interstate 80.
"I-80 begins at an interchange with U.S. Route 101 (US 101) in San Francisco, and then crosses the San Francisco–Oakland Bay Bridge into Oakland. It then heads northeast through Vallejo, Sacramento, and the Sierra Nevada mountains before crossing into Nevada" Wikipedia.. Was this commuter route integral to the movements of the Zodiac Killer, such as a profession or pastime? His early correspondence was mailed to San Francisco and Vallejo, with Fairfield accounting for two postmarks on December 7th 1969 and December 16th 1969. If we include the December 10th 1969 and December 11th 1969 paste-up letters, dubbed the "Cancer" and "Leo" communications, then these were mailed from Sacramento to Sacramento, and Fairfield to San Francisco respectively. These communications were spanning Sacramento to San Francisco, taking in Fairfield, Vallejo and Oakland along the way - the primary hit zones identified in the December 16th Fairfield letter. The only exception being Napa, positioned only 7 miles off route to Interstate 80 at its nearest point. We will call this geographic profiling of the future.

Rubislaw 32 link

6/29/2019 05:13:35 pm

Fascinating article,Richard...and even if just taking in,the gist of what you attempt to convey,the map illustration is,I believe,''priceless'' information.

In the [presumed] Zodiac's Fairfield letter,he is making claims of intended kills,by geographic placement.

What the Zodiac,is giving away is,his ''capabilities'',even if exaggeration,or lies to the quantity of kills.

So,by mapping them out,in accordance to the Zodiac's claims....it becomes,I believe,''obvious'' to where he intends to ''start out'',predominently.

And,the map illustrations indicate.....either Vallejo or Fairfield...or somewhere,in between.

But,that's just for ''starters'',admittedly....and further clues emerging,in other aspects of his correspondence and 'physical activity' tend to point more to Vallejo,than Fairfield.

Richard

6/29/2019 11:36:05 pm

Yes Rubislaw, if we consider that he would apply an imaginary buffer zone, then using commuter routes known or commonly used by him, such as Interstate 80, not only would he know how far he had to travel to commit each of the projected murders in his mind, but also know the likelihood of him being at or near to those locations in his projected future for purposes such as work. If he were a travelling salesman who used Interstate 80 between Sacramento and San Francisco, he could group his letters in San Francisco to give the false impression he lived their, while travelling the route regularly. Taking out the single San Jose threat because of reasons I gave in the previous article, every place on his kill list has to be passed using Interstate 80. He may obviously frequent Napa as well, but his primary sites involve this route. Kim Rossmo talked of the mental map of a killer and the journeys he takes regularly, and the notion of the argument is that this may seep out unconsciously when considering his future targets. San Jose was the furthest in the example shown, but he could have picked Los Angeles, Santa Barbara, Santa Cruz, Modesto or San Diego, but he didn't. His mind effectively constrained what was possible to him, even if in his deluded brain he was contemplating following up his boasts of 38 victims. The premise was to paint a picture of his mental map as virtual crimes. His communications in these early months of Zodiac (if we believe them all to be Zodiac) featured San Francisco, Fairfield, Sacramento and Vallejo either by their postmark or destination. Interstate 80 common to all.

Rubislaw 32 link

6/30/2019 12:04:26 am

Indeed that captures it :

''....paint a picture of his mental map as virtual crimes.''.

Rubislaw 32 link

6/29/2019 05:55:08 pm

On a more general point,with respect to geographic profiling,if it had become apparent,early on,that the Zodiac was committing ''mischievousness'',confined to a single city,such as San Francisco,the task of ascertaining his ''home base'',could be applied to,as a ''fine art''.

But,with an obvious ''spread'' to his activities...this calls for a different philosophy.During a particular wave of bombing,of London,during WW2,the defence authorities,were suddenly confronted,by the ''horrendous'' V1 Rocket...effectively,the first cruise missile.

So,they started to employ a form of ''target analysis'',attempting to accurately guess,from where these missiles were being fired.

Trouble was,that the enemy could transport the weapons to different launch locations,quite easily,by methods,such as a railway system.

But,these defence efforts,went a long way to becoming more ''savvy'',about geographic profiling,over a wide area.

With the Zodiac,in particular,one imagines that he and his motorcar,are a ''cruise missile''.

The only difference is,that the ''launch pad'',is one immovable place,and ''the target'' is manifold.

Richard

6/30/2019 12:17:33 am

The mailboxes section on Zodiac Killer Site forum is interesting, and attempting to sort of 'geographic profile' Zodiac's mailings in San Francisco. The bulk of his deliveries centred on the east and west side, joined by the Stine route. All this involving Rincon Postal Annex. If Zodiac worked in San Francisco this is a useful avenue of investigation.
http://www.zodiackillersite.com/viewtopic.php?f=25&t=4331

Rubislaw 32 link

6/30/2019 01:29:44 am

That is good and valuable work,at zodiackillersite,with respect to mailboxes.

And yes,there will be some,that still believe that the Zodiac resided,in San Francisco.

But,not me.

Unrelated,perhaps,but if of any interest to your readers...

In 2009,I submitted a dossier,to Tayside CID,Dundee,on the murder of local sex worker,Carol Lannen,who was found strangled and naked,in Templeton Woods,on the outskirts of the city,on March 21st 1979.

The most significant clue,as to the residence of the [unknown] perpetrator...came ten days later,with the discovery of Ms.Lannen's handbag,containing small items,such as her underwear.

This discovery was made,ten days later...and 85 miles away,on the banks of the River Don,near Inverurie,north-west of the city of Aberdeen.

On the basis of three amateur fisherman,''claiming'' they saw,what might have been Ms.Lannen's handbag,floating in Loch Ton,three miles from where the handbag was found...the police were inclined to think that,Ms.Lannen's perpetrator came from that general area.

I was able to demonstrate that,had the fishermen been correct,the handbag,could never,realistically,have made its journey,and in the time elapsed,to the river bank where it was eventually found.

In relation to where Ms.Lannen's handbag was located,the much greater likelihood was,that the perpetrator threw the handbag,from the Don Bridge,near Inverurie....into the River Don,and continued his car journey,taking an immediate right turn,back towards the East Coast....ending up,directly north of the city of Aberdeen.

''One continuous ''cruise missile'' journey'',from Dundee to the north of Aberdeen...with a minor ''circumnaviation'',to the west of that city of Aberdeen,in order to ''plant'' Ms.Lannen's handbag....still many miles,from where the perpetrator actually resided [...which,was somewhere,between Balmedie and Ellon...].

Why did Ms.Lannen's perpetrator,''remove'' her handbag,to a location,85 miles away ?

Answer : To place the handbag,under the jurisdiction of Grampian Police....with Ms.Lannen's body,under the jurisdiction of Tayside Police.

Tom1

6/30/2019 06:11:04 am

After reading this and as a result of prior consideration, my best armchair conclusion is that he either lived or worked in Fairfield. His hunting and fishing activities would have resulted in intimate knowledge of LHR and Lake Berryessa as he traveled to these areas by auto. There is also a definite probability that he could have lived in San Fran and commuted to the Fairfield area.

Richard

6/30/2019 06:51:59 am

Putting aside my belief Tom, that he lived by the payphone at Tuolumne, American Canyon or Fairfield have always been a consideration. Plus areas of Fairfield were flooded just before the time he stated he was flooded out by the rain we had a while back. The two Fairfield letters were mailed in December, so was he still there in January 1970. .

"Suisun Slough is under the influence of tides. The most severe flooding along this waterway would result when very high tides and a large volume of stream outflow occur coincidently. In Suisun City, restrictive outlets into slough areas cause floodflows to pond in low-lying areas, and high tides may delay drainage for several days. Flooding occurred in Suisun City in 1940, 1950, 1955, 1963, 1966, 1967, 1969, 1970, and 1973. Extensive flooding along State Highway 12 occurred in December 1955. Floodwater rose to waist depth in a residential development when high tides slowed drainage. In January 1967, floodwater covered one-third of the streets, and was approximately 2 feet deep in the southern part of town. Flooding from Pennsylvania Avenue Creek and Union Avenue Creek had a recurrence interval of 15 years for the 1967 flood. A high tide and overflow from Laurel Creek and Union Avenue Creek caused flooding in January 1970." Flood Insurance Study.

Rubislaw 32 link

6/30/2019 08:19:19 am

....and,of course,I can't help adding,that ''supportive evidence'',emerging from the rear,in 1975,of ''shenanigans'' having taken place,at both the JFK library in Vallejo....and the Civic Centre library in Fairfield....in 1968,1969 and 1970.

Courtesy of Mr.Lafferty.

[...The FBI have all the ''lowdown''....]

Rubislaw 32 link

6/30/2019 11:23:54 am

''Interesting'',from the Reddit site :

Most popular asked,serious question,about the Zodiac [?] :

Did the Zodiac know any of his victims ?

---------

A popular Zodiac related conclusion :

''All the evidence for Richard Gaikowski '' :

i ] He was a white guy

ii ] He wore glasses

[....I never knew...]

--------

My personal current ''ponderable'' :

Which journalist will publish the first article,in the advent of Darlene Ferrin's 50th anniversary ?

1/2 Kevin Fagan.....unsatisfactorally

16/1 Kevin Fagan....innocuously

100/1 Bar the rest

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