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Richard Grinell, Coventry, England
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DNA - THE SEARCH GOES ON

7/8/2019

 
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Most, if not all Zodiac forums and websites classify the January 29th 1974 Exorcist letter as confirmed Zodiac correspondence. It is widely touted by law enforcement, newspapers and documentaries as the last confirmed Zodiac communication, and in a poll conducted on this site, 86% of visitors believe it to be genuine Zodiac material. This mailing was listed in the 2000 San Francisco 'Suspected Zodiac Correspondence' DNA Report as one of the communications processed for DNA. The subsequent 1974 letters were not processed for DNA, otherwise the report would have stated this. Since the Exorcist letter was widely considered to be the last confirmed Zodiac communication, it would therefore make perfect sense that this took priority over the Citizen Card and Red Phantom letter to be the only 1974 correspondence tested.

Mike Rodelli wrote in his book, 'The Hunt for Zodiac:The Inconceivable Double Life of a Notorious Serial Killer', that Alan Keel, Criminalist at the San Francisco Police Department, San Francisco, California from 1996 to 1999 "revealed that there were two letters in possession of the department that, in contrast to the "true" Zodiac letters, had abundant saliva and DNA-containing oral epithelial cells on them, that DNA was easily extracted from these two letters, and that the DNA extracted from these two letters matched between them. These two letters were considered forgeries, since the "true" Zodiac verifiable letters had not been licked by the sender." Mike Rodelli added that "In contrast (to earlier communications), Keel analyzed two other letters, one of which is the 1978 forgery, and finds that this letter and one of the 1974 letters are loaded with saliva and cells. He then easily extracts DNA from both of these letters using the more primitive DNA technology of that time and finds that the DNA matches between those two letters, thus proving that one person sent both."  
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For two letters to have a definitive match of DNA they must have a complete profile. A partial DNA profile from one letter compared to a full DNA profile of the other could only be used to exclude them as having been licked by the same person, not conclusively tie them together as having a single contributor. Since the Exorcist letter appeared to be the only 1974 letter processed for DNA, it can be argued from Alan Keel's statement that the two letters that matched in DNA were the 1978 letter and Exorcist letter. If the San Francisco DNA report concluded that the 1978 letter was "not an authentic Zodiac letter", then there is a strong possibility that neither was the Exorcist letter.

For those who resolutely argue that the Exorcist letter is a genuine Zodiac communication, may have to accept the authenticity of the 1978 letter too. According to all the above observations, these two communications are inextricably linked by one sender. In early 2018 Vallejo police Detective Terry Poyser, who has worked the Zodiac case for four years, said his agency has submitted two envelopes (in late 2017) that contained letters from the Zodiac Killer for a type of advanced DNA analysis that previously had not been available in the case. Poyser declined to identify the lab, but said it would attempt to obtain a full DNA profile from saliva on the envelope flap and stamps. He said he expected to have results back from the lab as soon as in the next few weeks, and almost certainly by summer. Sacramento Bee.

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Why are they attempting to find a full DNA profile, when presumably they have already achieved a full DNA profile, according to Alan Keel and the San Francisco Police Department DNA report? They cannot claim the 1978 letter as "not an authentic Zodiac letter" in a DNA report, unless a full profile exists. Furthermore, how did they ascertain the 1978 letter was not Zodiac, unless they knew who licked the envelope and stamp seal - and knew that person wasn't Zodiac. They couldn't ascertain the 1978 letter wasn't Zodiac by comparing it to authenticated early Zodiac material, because seemingly these had not yielded a full DNA profile as we stand today. They clearly seem to have little faith in the Exorcist letter either, because if this has generated a full DNA profile in the past, but they are still "attempting to obtain a full DNA profile from saliva" today, then I presume this invalidates their confidence in its authenticity.  

Tom Voigt recently began a forum thread on the Zodiac Killer message board entitled Vallejo Police Department DNA Update, stating "The lab work has turned into more lab work. VPD is still at it. The hunt continues..." Why are they still hunting for viable DNA when apparently a full profile has been secured previously? Even if law enforcement have little confidence in the Exorcist and 1978 letter, these would have provided the best options to run through a genealogy website 18 months ago and the results would have been in by now had anything fruitful been generated. Unless of course, you already know who forged both of these letters. I see no benefit in not seeking profiles from these two letters (generated from the 1978 letter and another, if different to suggested) to enter into a familial DNA program. If the familial search threw out a notable family tree, or the lineage of a recognized Zodiac suspect, then it would add credence to the previously doubted Zodiac communication. 

For the 60% of people who voted on this site, believing the 1978 letter to be from the hand of the Zodiac Killer, the question you should be asking is, why did the the 2000 San Francisco DNA report determine the 1978 correspondence to be "not an authentic Zodiac letter" if they hadn't already obtained a full DNA profile to make such an authoritative and conclusive judgement? The only other reasonable conclusion, is that they already knew who the author was.    ​

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Shawn
7/8/2019 08:08:27 am

Currently, VPD is in hot water on several issues. They are currently being sued for shooting at man 50 times sitting in a car among other controversial police officer actions

VPD needs a win. Solving the Zodiac case would be big win and public relations windfall.

Current VPD outgoing Chief Bidou is the son of Pierre Bidou who worked the LHR Zodiac case and appeared in Fincher's Documentary.

Pierre's son worked for Benecia police before going to Vallejo.

Poyser was suppose to retire last year but has decided to stay on for another year.

So there is lots of motivational and emotional reasons for VPD to get something done on the DNA front.

Richard
7/8/2019 10:11:49 am

Is your confidence in them securing adequate DNA Shawn, what it was a year ago? It's still heavily reliant on a relation having ever submitted into one of the genealogy sites. The Vallejo Police force certainly aren't the first with Dirty Harry trigger fingers. It's getting all too normal now. However, in a general sense, not a job I would entertain doing with too many irresponsible gun owners and nutters running around armed to the teeth. I'd probably be shooting my own shadow if I was on duty.

art
7/8/2019 08:22:00 am

The Keel era profiles are based on STR genetic markers. The genealogy method relies on a different type of marker called SNP. So this is why the Keel era profiles are not used in genealogy search.

Richard
7/8/2019 08:39:22 am

What I don't understand Art, is begin with communications which previously harboured plentiful saliva, such as the Exorcist letter, rather than the earlier letters where few cells were found. Especially if you are of the opinion the Exorcist letter is real. Law enforcement keep insisting this is a genuine letter - if so - you already know successful testing has been done on it. Instead, they apparently chose the July 31st letters, which likely have in common the "few cells" of other earlier letters. Swabbing letters, searching for viable DNA, and using PCR is the easy part. The hard part is wading through the family trees. I don't know how many letters they have now tested - but surely the more you test, the more chance you have.

Richard
7/8/2019 08:49:35 am

For reference: ""There's a legacy problem in that so many DNA profiles have been collected with this older genetic marker system that's been used by law enforcement since the 1990s. The system is not designed for the more challenging queries that are currently of interest, such as identifying people represented in a DNA mixture or identifying relatives of the contributor of a DNA sample," says senior author Noah Rosenberg, a biology professor at Stanford University. "In this study, we were trying to pose the question of whether a newer, more modern system of genetic markers could be tested against the old system and still get matches and find relatives."

The database used by the FBI and other law-enforcement agencies is known as the Combined DNA Index System (CODIS). It relies on short tandem repeat (STR) markers, a type of copy-number variation, in noncoding regions of the DNA. (The system originally used 13 markers; it recently was updated and now includes 20.) By contrast, ancestry databases look for differences in single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) across hundreds of thousands of sites in the genome". https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/10/181011143120.htm

Shawn
7/8/2019 10:07:21 am

They might have a full profile from the Exorcist letter and 1978 so-called forgery letter.

Maybe they cannot find anyone in the DNA databases that matches or even a family tree OR they know who it is and it is a forgery.

Nancy Ballenack (Suspected Zodiac Victim) Killed October 25th 1970. Two days before the October 27th, 1970 Postmark on the "Halloween Card".

"The suspect cut himself during the assault, Links said. Deputies have a DNA profile on the person who killed Bennallack and the DNA has been in the state and national databases for years."

https://www.kcra.com/article/47-years-later-nancy-bennallacks-murder-remains-unsolved/14767070

Nancy was killed in Sacramento.....Home of the Golden State Killer big GedMatch solve. But no resolution on Nancy's death yet.

Richard
7/8/2019 09:01:56 am

"when apparently a full profile has been secured previously". That sounds better.

Richard
7/8/2019 09:22:03 am

Thanks Art, that was helpful.

art
7/8/2019 09:52:04 am

Hi Richard, yes I see your point now...start with envelopes that have already yielded usable DNA, i.e. such DNA can be re-tested with the new SNP panel markers that are compatible with the genealogy sites. To not do so would require a fairly solid rationale, nonetheless likely based on a string of assumptions. Unless they are certain for example that Toschi was responsible for those high DNA letters. Wishing there was more transparency in the decision making there...

Richard
7/8/2019 10:04:40 am

Yes, I was alluding to Toschi, Art, as these were the two letters he was accused of fabricating - which he always denied. Thanks for making that earlier point about the DNA. I have adjusted the phraseology in the article to represent better your accurate observations.

art
7/8/2019 09:53:59 am

Another DNA comparison that could be made is 1) the mtDNA profile that ALREADY EXISTS in the Bates case vs. 2) the mtDNA profile that could easily be developed from the high DNA letters that you refer to.

Sigmund
7/10/2019 05:41:59 pm

I generally find that LE are about 1000 steps ahead of everything that is being considered on social media. :-)

Tom1
7/11/2019 05:45:39 am

Another really good article, so let's boil this down. Toschi and Armstrong had forensic evidence linking some of the letters to at least one of the crimes. Combining this with DNA evidence and available technology all of the known POI's were cleared. I am intrigued with the possibility that Toschi knew the answer but didn't have enough to bring charges. Maybe his behaviour was an attempt to smoke out our friend. Mr Z's behaviour is a cipher in an of itself. Some one out there must know the answer.

Richard
7/11/2019 07:31:07 am

The only forensic evidence linking letters to a crime are obviously the three shirt pieces in the Stine, Bus Bomb and Belli letters. In terms of DNA we are currently in a situation where nobody has been cleared, because of the discredited 2002 show starring Cydne Holt. If Tom, you believe wholeheartedly the Exorcist letter is Zodiac and this contains a full profile as suggested in the article, then you believe anybody excluded using the Exorcist letter is not the Zodiac. Anybody who believes the Exorcist letter isn't Zodiac, then even if it contained a full profile, it wouldn't exclude anybody of being Zodiac in their eyes. If a full profile positively existed on the sealed flap or stamp of the Exorcist letter, but it didn't match say Kjell Qvale or Arthur Leigh Allen, the person who believes these suspects are Zodiac would then just distance themselves from that letter as having originated from Zodiac. Let us say tomorrow, they found a full profile on the Halloween card stamp and Little List envelope that matched each other, but didn't match Kjell Qvale, would the person who believes Kjell Qvale is Zodiac, say damn "I was wrong all along", or just shed the Halloween card and Little List letter from their confirmed Zodiac communications, thereby keeping their suspect in the frame. Their other option is to say Kjell Qvale got one of his workers, secretaries or friends to lick the stamp and envelope for him. Robert Graysmith did exactly this. Unfortunately Tom, no matter what DNA they find (if they do), be rest assured the multiple alternative excuses are waiting in the wings. God forbid that anybody would just hold up their hands and just say "I was mistaken".

Depending on what letters you believe are Zodiac, was as individual to Dave Toschi, as it is to you and I, so David Toschi knowing the answer, would only be with respect to the letters in 1974 and 1978, and doesn't really help us in the search for Zodiac - because all the letters post 1971 are dubious. But if any future pre-1971 letters do generate a full DNA profile, I believe those letters will hit the dustbin of bogus Zodiac letters pile, before anybody will be prepared to ditch their suspect. For me (and I know it sounds cynical) but finding DNA on any early Zodiac letters will be everything to some people, but
nothing to others. They will always believe what they've always believed. Some will accept their suspicions were unfounded, but they will be as rare as Zodiac's DNA.

Scott
7/11/2019 04:38:15 pm

Obviously no one, least of all LE, wants a DNA profile from a bogus or copycat letter. What would be a probable home run is dual, matching letter profiles under circumstances where at least one of the letters contains sufficient indicia of trustworthiness to proceed. That may not be easy for the reasons Richard articulates.

Certainly, however, some letters (the Stine shirt being a prime example) are home runs.

I'm not giving up hope. I suspect something is happening we aren't aware of.


Comments are closed.
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